Free-agent slugger J.D. Martinez and the Marlins have recently spoken, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The outfielder has been requesting a two-year contract. According to Mish, the Marlins intend to rotate Josh Bell, Jake Burger, and other players through the designated DH position. He continues, saying that it doesn’t seem like the two are a good fit right now, but it’s likely partially because of Martinez’s asking price.
The interactions are noteworthy even if there isn’t a current fit. In the event that Martinez’s price drops to a particular level, it brings a fresh player to the equation and indicates Miami’s at least some willingness to spend more in free agency. Presumably, other teams not in the running for Martinez would also express interest if the price dropped to the point where a normally frugal club like Miami felt comfortable.
Martinez, 36, recently concluded a stellar comeback season with the Dodgers in which he hit 33 home runs and slashed.271/.321/.572. Martinez had his lowest walk rate since becoming a major league regular last year with 7.1%, while his strikeout percentage of 31.1% was a career high. That may indicate that an elderly hitter is giving up his formerly above-average contact skills in favor of increased power, but even in that scenario, the findings are difficult to dispute. The question now is whether that strategy will lead to further success in the future, especially over the course of a multi-year contract.
In 2023, Martinez’s batted ball stats was off the charts. His average exit velocity of 93.4 mph, his barrel rate of 17%, and his hard-hit rate of 54.8% placed him in the 98th percentile of MLB batters. There was hardly anyone who made contact with more authority than Martinez when he did. Only five qualifying hitters in baseball—Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and Ronald Acuna Jr.—have average exit velocities greater than Martinez’s 2023 record. The only players who hit a greater proportion of their batted balls at 95 mph or above were Judge, Chapman, Acuna, Olson, and Juan Soto.
Martinez would essentially take over for Jorge Soler in Miami after the latter decided to forego the final year and $13 million of his contract in favor of a three-year, $42 million agreement with the Giants. In certain aspects, Martinez resembles an older version of that same skill set: like Soler, he is a right fielder whose batted-ball statistics and productivity against left-handed pitching are excellent, and his declining defensive ability makes him best suited for DH duties. Martinez and Soler have more equal platoon splits, but Martinez struck out far more frequently in the previous season.
The Marlins surprised us by reaching out to Martinez, considering how little effort they made to re-sign Soler. Maybe it’s just a matter of trying to score a cheap upgrade for the starting lineup as many free agents become available towards the end of the season. Even though Martinez’s price hasn’t dropped, the Marlins most likely still have enough money to work out a deal that would allow him to stay. With an Opening Day salary of $101.6 million, RosterResource projects Miami will fall $8.4 million short of the previous season’s finish line.
The Fish might give Martinez a backloaded two-year contract even if they’re hesitant to pay Martinez more than last year’s payroll threshold, which would likely prevent them from signing Martinez to a one-year contract. In 2025, the Marlins’ only contracts are with Sandy Alcantara ($17M) and Avisail Garcia ($12M). Additionally, they will owe Garcia a $5 million buyout on a 2026 option.
That figure will rise because Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., A.J. Puk, Edward Cabrera, and Braxton Garrett are the main players in Miami’s massive arbitration class (with a few additional supporting players mixed in). Even yet, if owner Bruce Sherman approves of such kind of spending, there should be enough leeway for the Fish to imaginatively arrange a deal to add Martinez to the team. It’s unclear if he will actually do so. Before agreeing to a one-year, $5 million contract with Tim Anderson, Miami waited out the full offseason to use free agency. In recent years, the organization has demonstrated a lack of stomach for spending on free agents and has often been disappointed when it does so (Garcia, Johnny Cueto, Jean Segura).
