A Josh Allen MVP win became a strong possibility after Allen emerged as a frontrunner in the 2024 race following three weeks highlighted by two big victories. The first was a 30-21 win over the rival Kansas City Chiefs. The second came after a snow-filled victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12.Allen joined the Eagles Saquon Barkley, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow as leading candidates to capture this season’s award. Barkley broke LeSean McCoy’s single-season rushing record for the Philadephia Eagles in his first year with the team after racking up 124 yards on the ground against the Carolina PanthersFollowing another record-setting performance in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams, that conversation will only ramp up even more. In the 44-42 loss, the Bills quarterback put up an insane stat line – 342 yards passing, three touchdowns, 117.2 QBR; 10 carries, 82 yards rushing, and three touchdowns.
While a Josh Allen MVP award would be a great way to reward a special season from a special player, the history between former MVP winners and Super Bowl victories in the same season is against the Bills quarterback.
Why a Josh Allen MVP Could Be a Bad Omen for the Bills Super Bowl Hopes
Matching a Perennial Rival
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes achieved the feat of winning both a regular season MVP award and a Super Bowl in 2022. Before that, Kurt Warner was the last player to accomplish the feat when he won an MVP and led the St. Louis Rams to a Super Bowl victory in 1999.
Other than Warner and Mahomes, nine other players captured both trophies. While it isn’t unattainable, the history is against Allen. Mahomes is this generation’s most successful quarterback, and those players often buck historical trends. Before Mahomes, Tom Brady won seven Super Bowls, including six with the New England Patriots.Several of Allen’s contemporaries captured MVP awards but couldn’t finish the job. Lamar Jackson won the award last year but fell to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. The following players won a regular season MVP but fell short of adding a Super Bowl to it in the last 15 years:
Tom Brady, New England – 2010; 2017
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay – 2011, 2014, 2020, 2021
Matt Ryan, Atlanta – 2016
Cam Newton, Carolina – 2015
Mahomes, Kansas City – 2018
Jackson, Baltimore – 2019
Of the players above, only Brady (2017), Ryan, and Newton made the Super Bowl in their MVP seasons. So while Allen is currently playing at his highest level in the 2024 season, it won’t necessarily translate to a Super Bowl win.
The Buffalo Bills Ultimate Goal
Every team’s goal entering any season is to win the Super Bowl, but only a handful of NFL teams have a realistic chance of doing so. The Chiefs are the current NFL dynasty and have bucked many norms en route to three Super Bowl wins over the last five years. If the ball continues to fall where they need it to in close games, they could be the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls.
